The lipstick effect

How is the recession affecting audiences for the arts? Not much, if we go by the Society of London Theatres’ analysis of attendances in 2008 which saw a 1% rise and an especially strong final quarter. Seamus McGibbon, Business Development Manager at the Theatrical Management Association says members from theatres outside London also report that business over Christmas was buoyant. But things have changed. Asda’s December poll of 1,000 people found that a third of those questioned feared for their job security. By March this had increased to half, and two-thirds said they would take a pay cut to protect their job. Mintel’s 2009 research indicates that more than 40% of adults now claim that the recession has directly impacted on them, and another 39% know someone who has been affected.
Arts attendance since Christmas seems more patchy. One large- scale theatre in a region particularly hard hit by the recession comments, “We’ve never been so busy.” But others say that some elements of their programme are proving difficult to sell. It’s too early to tell if this is a trend or just a few unappealing productions. It would be wise to understand how consumers tend to behave in times of economic difficulty.
In a recession, people focus on what really makes them happy, says Trendwatching. One response, the trend gurus suggest, is to do more as a family (which perhaps explains healthy sales figures for pantomime). They predict consumers will search for less expensive ways of achieving that happiness. A quarter of respondents to a poll by Populus for The Times said they have put off buying a car, and a quarter have cancelled summer holiday plans. But sales of confectionery are up. People are giving themselves small treats to compensate. Mintel predicts that this ‘lipstick effect’ (retail therapy from a new lipstick instead of new shoes) will lead to more products claiming to enhance mood: to soothe, energise or lift the spirits.
 

People need cheering up when things get tough. The UK Film Council’s study of cinema admissions during the last three recessions show that they hover around the trend line rather than dipping during recessions and rising during periods of economic recovery. McGibbon says theatre managers report that comedy is selling well. According to Euromonitor, Sally Haynes, ITV’s head of drama commissioning has commented on a rising interest in escapist drama. Consumers are focusing on well-being, with sales of food supplements up by 8%. Wrapped up with well-being is a desire for safety through products that provide authenticity and even nostalgia, so consumers are more likely to prefer tried and trusted brands with little perceived risk.
But these responses to recession can lead to unexpected behaviours. Matt Close of Unilever said on BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme that sales of bouillon, shower gels and mayonnaise are up. Why? Because more of us are cooking from scratch instead of eating out, having showers not baths and making sandwiches rather than going to Pret à Manger at lunchtime. Consumers are trading down by seeking out supermarket deals and trading up to get a little bit of indulgence through higher quality products. Although the majority of consumers perceive they are cutting back, the British Retail Consortium reports that retail food sales are currently 5% up on last year.
So price promotions are not the answer to the recession because quality matters as much as price. Asda reports, “We did a survey with our customers at the beginning of the year. They said they are now making product choices around quality and value for money.” Consumers are looking for ways they can get their luxury cheaper. They are using supermarkets such as Lidl and Aldi because they can get the deli foods at rock-bottom prices. The Soil Association reports that consumers are buying cheaper cuts of organic meat and frozen organic vegetables not fresh rather than going back to conventional foods.
Mintel’s research shows that it is the middle market that gets squeezed when people simultaneously trade up and trade down. In the arts, that middle market consists of the brands that are perceived as neither special enough to feel like a treat nor cheap and cheerful enough to be experienced guilt-free. But, according to McGibbon, some middle-of-the-road repertory theatres, the prime candidates for this squeeze, are reporting that business is keeping pace with this time last year. The answer may lie within The Times Populus research, which shows that the core audience for many of these organisations is feeling the pinch least. Professionals and managers are far less likely than other groups to have changed their leisure habits because of the recession. While 72% of people aged from 25 to 34 say they are eating out less, only 31% of those aged over 65 are cutting back.
This mixed picture makes it difficult to choose the most effective strategies for survival. One thing is certain – the picture will continue to change. As the Oxford Research Agency points out, it is the rapidity of the change in consumer behaviour that makes this recession unique. The lifesaver for the arts will not be cheap tickets but an up-to-date understanding of our audiences.